Political Unrest in Nigeria Could Disrupt Oil Production

Despite calls of injustice by the opposition candidates in Nigeria’s presidential election, it looks as if Umaru Yar’Adua of the ruling People’s Democratic Party, and Obasanjo’s hand-picked successor, is poised to win the presidency in a landslide victory. All this occurs in the midst of ballot shortages, vote-rigging, and two attempted attacks on government officials. International monitors of the election have rejected the results because of these irregularities.

Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and has one of the largest deposits of crude oil in the world. Political instability in Nigeria caused by public outrage over the election could have serious repercussions for oil exports from the country, and the world oil market. Nigeria produces about 2.5 million barrels of high-quality, low processing oil a day which is about 3% of the world market, but political violence makes this increasingly difficult.

Nigeria Election Primer

AllAfrica has a short voter primer for the election in Nigeria, it’s a good summary of each of the main candidates, plus a little picture.

 

Atiku Abubakar

Action Congress (AC), 60-years-old

VP: Ben Obi

Atiku Abubukar, the Vice President of Nigeria, was cleared to run only on Monday after the Supreme Court ruled that the electoral commission could not bar him on the grounds of corruption allegations. Abubukar was a founding member of the People’s Democratic Party, but fell out with Obasanjo after opposing the president’s bid for a third term. Abubukar is a Muslim from northeastern Nigeria.

Muhammadu Buhari

All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), 64-years-old

VP: Edwin Ume-Ezeoke

Muhammadu Buhari is a former military ruler of Nigeria. He ruled from January 1984 to August 1985. During his time in power, observers praised Buhari’s fight against corruption, but the media criticized him for restricting the freedom of the press. Like Yar’Adua, the PDP candidate, he is a Muslim from Katsina State. Buhari lost to Obasanjo in the 2003 election.

Umaru Yar’Adua

People’s Democratic Party (PDP), 55-years-old

VP: Goodluck Jonathan

Umaru Yar’Adua, the ruling party candidate, is the current governor of Katsina state. His older brother, General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, was President Olusegun Obasanjo’s deputy when Obasanjo was the military ruler of Nigeria from 1976 to 1979. A Muslim from northern Nigeria, he is considered Obasanjo’s hand-picked successor. Yar’Adua pledged to continue Obasanjo’s reform program, and Yar’Adua has avoided corruption charges that have plagued many Nigerian governors.

The Others

Patrick Utomi, ADC Lawrence Famakinde Adedoyin, APS Emmanuel Osita Okereke, ALP Dim Chukwuemeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu, APGA Christopher Pere Ajuwa, AD Iheanyinchukwu Godswill Nnaji, BNPP Maxi Okwu, CPP Attahiru Dalhatu Bafarawa, DPP Chris O. Okotie, FRESH Chief Ambrose Owuru, HDP Mojisola A. Adekunle-Obasanjo, MMN Olapade Agoro, NAC Osagie O. Obayuwana, NCP Aliyu Habu Fari, NDP Akpone Solomon, NMDP Aminu Garbarti Abubakar, NUP Isa Odidi, ND Galtima Baboyi Liman, NNPP Brimmy Asekharuagbom Olaghere, NPC Arthur Nwakwo, PMP Orji Uzor Kalu, PPA Sunny Joseph Okogwu, RPN

Nigerians Vote in Historic Election

Nigerians took to the polls yesterday in an electoral show-down between the ruling PDP party and the opposition parties. As could be expected one of the opposition party candidates and oddly, the current Vice President denounced the election as a “National Tragedy.” Says Atiku;

 This is not an election it is a national tragedy. This was why I earlier called on INEC for the election to be postponed I went round most polling units and I had expected to see election materials but to my greatest surprise until the time I left to come here there were no materials like ballot papers and result sheets

What else is new in Nigeria. 7 police officers sent to monitor the election died ina car crash on their way to a polling station as well.  We’ll see how this whole thing unfolds and what Buhari has to say about the election, given he denounced it two weeks before it happened, now that it happened I imagine he will make a comment shortly.

War of All Against All

The Wall Street Journal has a small insert, reporting that a suicide bomb in Somalia killed 12 in an attack on Ethiopian forces yesterday. On a very un-academic note, Somalia is probably one of my top 5 fears. I read Leviathan when I was about 15 in high school and swear it had the same effect that the movie The Blob might have had for people of an earlier generation. I became afraid of the state of man in nature absent of society, or what Hobbes called a “war of all against all” or a life that is “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short.” which, if you ask me doesn’t sound like much of a life at all. So, Somalia and state collapse have become among my biggest fears and I’m a little jumpy any time there is violence.

Elections will Continue in Nigeria Come Hell or High Water!

Just a quick update on the Nigerian elections. The coalition of Opposition parties that was formed after Muhhamadu Buhari, one of the opposition candidates, called a meeting of all candidates in the midst of allegations of electoral fraud, has now called for the postponement of Saturday’s elections. The Federal Government today promised that elections will go ahead as scheduled on Saturday and a new president will be sworn in on May 29th, regardless of opposition complaints.

7 Die in Raids in Kenya

Shadowy raiders ransacked violent hotspots in Kenya last night indicating an increase in the violence in the country that comes around every general election. The interclan violence in Kenya has always been present but in the wake of the recent Mt. Elgon skirmish the government has been stepping up its security forces. Whole villages were torched and seven people were killed, including a 70-year-old man and a woman holding a baby. Much of the violence in the region is caused by the Mungiki, a mysterious militia group vying for power in the upcoming elections. Most think the attacks were politically motivated as Munguki raiders burned ID’s and Voter’s Cards.